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Foundations of Risk Analysis

Foundations of Risk Analysis PDF Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111994578X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 224

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Book Description
Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Foundations of Risk Analysis

Foundations of Risk Analysis PDF Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111994578X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 224

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Book Description
Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Foundations of Risk Analysis

Foundations of Risk Analysis PDF Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470871237
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 209

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Book Description
Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis ? expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Risk Analysis

Risk Analysis PDF Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119057795
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 210

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Book Description
A practical guide to the varied challenges presented in the ever-growing field of risk analysis. Risk Analysis presents an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis, in a wide variety of field, with minimal prior knowledge required. Forming an ideal companion volume to Aven's previous Wiley text Foundations of Risk Analysis, it provides clear recommendations and guidance in the planning, execution anduse of risk analysis. This new edition presents recent developments related to risk conceptualization, focusing on related issues on risk assessment and their application. New examples are also featured to clarify the reader's understanding in the application of risk analysis and the risk analysis process. Key features: Fully updated to include recent developments related to risk conceptualization and related issues on risk assessments and their applications. Emphasizes the decision making context of risk analysis rather than just computing probabilities Demonstrates how to carry out predictive risk analysis using a variety of case studies and examples. Written by an experienced expert in the field, in a style suitable for both industrial and academic audiences. This book is ideal for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and physical sciences. Managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty will also benefit from this book.

Risk Analysis

Risk Analysis PDF Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780470694428
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 207

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Book Description
Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk anduncertainty. The ability to analyze, predict, and prepare for thelevel of risk entailed by these decisions is, therefore, one of themost constant and vital skills needed for analysts, scientists andmanagers. Risk analysis can be defined as a systematic use of informationto identify hazards, threats and opportunities, as well as theircauses and consequences, and then express risk. In order tosuccessfully develop such a systematic use of information, thoseanalyzing the risk need to understand the fundamental concepts ofrisk analysis and be proficient in a variety of methods andtechniques. Risk Analysis adopts a practical, predictiveapproach and guides the reader through a number ofapplications. Risk Analysis: Provides an accessible and concise guide to performing riskanalysis in a wide variety of fields, with minimal prior knowledgerequired. Adopts a broad perspective on risk, with focus on predictionsand highlighting uncertainties beyond expected values andprobabilities, allowing a more flexible approach than traditionalstatistical analysis. Acknowledges that expected values and probabilities couldproduce poor predictions - surprises may occur. Emphasizes the planning and use of risk analyses, rather thanjust the risk analysis methods and techniques, including thestatistical analysis tools. Features many real-life case studies from a variety ofapplications and practical industry problems, including areas suchas security, business and economy, transport, oil & gas and ICT(Information and Communication Technology). Forms an ideal companion volume to Aven’s previous Wileytext Foundations of Risk Analysis. Professor Aven’s previous book Foundations of RiskAnalysis presented and discussed several risk analysisapproaches and recommended a predictive approach. This new textexpands upon this predictive approach, exploring further the riskanalysis principles, concepts, methods and models in an appliedformat. This book provides a useful and practical guide todecision-making, aimed at professionals within the risk analysisand risk management field.

Fundamentals of Risk Analysis and Risk Management

Fundamentals of Risk Analysis and Risk Management PDF Author: Vlasta Molak
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439821976
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 496

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Book Description
This book bridges the gap between the many different disciplines used in applications of risk analysis to real world problems. Contributed by some of the world's leading experts, it creates a common information base and language for all risk analysis practitioners, risk managers, and decision makers. Valuable as both a reference for practitioners and a comprehensive textbook for students, Fundamentals of Risk Analysis and Risk Management is a unique contribution to the field. Its broad coverage ranges from basic theory of risk analysis to practical applications, risk perception, legal and political issues, and risk management.

Probabilistic Risk Analysis

Probabilistic Risk Analysis PDF Author: Lecturer in Mathematics Tim Bedford
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521773201
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 228

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Book Description
Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed.

The Economic Foundations of Risk Management

The Economic Foundations of Risk Management PDF Author: Robert Jarrow
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9813147539
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 208

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Book Description
The Economic Foundations of Risk Management presents the theory, the practice, and applies this knowledge to provide a forensic analysis of some well-known risk management failures. By doing so, this book introduces a unified framework for understanding how to manage the risk of an individual's or corporation's or financial institution's assets and liabilities. The book is divided into five parts. The first part studies the markets and the assets and liabilities that trade therein. Markets are differentiated based on whether they are competitive or not, frictionless or not (and the type of friction), and actively traded or not. Assets are divided into two types: primary assets and financial derivatives. The second part studies models for determining the risks of the traded assets. Models provided include the Black-Scholes-Merton, the Heath-Jarrow-Morton, and the reduced form model for credit risk. Liquidity risk, operational risk, and trading constraint models are also contained therein. The third part studies the conceptual solution to an individual's, firm's, and bank's risk management problem. This formulation involves solving a complex dynamic programming problem that cannot be applied in practice. Consequently, Part IV investigates how risk management is actually done in practice via the use of diversification, static hedging, and dynamic hedging. Finally, Part V applies these collective insights to six case studies, which are famous risk management failures. These are Penn Square Bank, Metallgesellschaft, Orange County, Barings Bank, Long Term Capital Management, and Washington Mutual. The credit crisis is also discussed to understand how risk management failed for many institutions and why.

The Science of Risk Analysis

The Science of Risk Analysis PDF Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429642725
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 316

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Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive demonstration of risk analysis as a distinct science covering risk understanding, assessment, perception, communication, management, governance and policy. It presents and discusses the key pillars of this science, and provides guidance on how to conduct high-quality risk analysis. The Science of Risk Analysis seeks to strengthen risk analysis as a field and science by summarizing and extending current work on the topic. It presents the foundation for a distinct risk field and science based on recent research, and explains the difference between applied risk analysis (to provide risk knowledge and tackle risk problems in relation to for example medicine, engineering, business or climate change) and generic risk analysis (on concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterise, communicate, manage and govern risk). The book clarifies and describes key risk science concepts, and builds on recent foundational work conducted by the Society for Risk Analysis in order to provide new perspectives on science and risk analysis. The topics covered are accompanied by cases and examples relating to current issues throughout. This book is essential reading for risk analysis professionals, scientists, students and practitioners, and will also be of interest to scientists and practitioners from other fields who apply risk analysis in their work.

Risk Assessment

Risk Assessment PDF Author: Marvin Rausand
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118281101
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 587

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Book Description
An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline the overall risk assessment process, and a discussion of accident models and accident causation offers readers new insights into how and why accidents occur to help them make better assessments. Risk Assessment Methods and Applications carefully describes the most relevant methods for risk assessment, including preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, fault tree analysis, and event tree analysis. Here, each method is accompanied by a self-contained description as well as workflow diagrams and worksheets that illustrate the use of discussed techniques. Important problem areas in risk assessment, such as barriers and barrier analysis, human errors, and human reliability, are discussed along with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter concludes with a listing of resources for further study of the topic, and detailed appendices outline main results from probability and statistics, related formulas, and a listing of key terms used in risk assessment. A related website features problems that allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material and supplemental slides to facilitate the learning process. Risk Assessment is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and risk assessment at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who use risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.

Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment

Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment PDF Author: C. Richard Cothern
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351079255
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 330

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Book Description
What data is needed to complete a quantitative risk assessment for environmental and public health? How accurate does a quantitative risk assessment have to be? How confident does a risk assessor need to be when presenting risk estimates to a decision maker? Find out the answers to these questions and more with Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment, the first major commercial publication that describes the current state of the art in comparative environmental risk assessment. This book examines the problems involved in such analyses and offers ideas and thoughts for future development. The book examines major problems in this area and covers all aspects of the environment, including human and ecological health. Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment is an excellent guide for risk assessment experts, environmentalists, regulators, planners, legislators, scientists in industry, instructors, and students.